Retirees, civil servants, students... Who will be the losers of the "blank year" desired by François Bayrou in 2026?

This is one of the most important (and controversial) measures announced by François Bayrou on Tuesday, July 15. If Parliament approves it at the end of the year, a "blank year" will be implemented next year to achieve seven billion in savings in the 2026 budget. This means that social benefits (retirement pensions, family allowances, RSA, APL, activity bonus, etc.) will not be adjusted for inflation , and the income tax scale will be frozen.

These measures, widely criticized by opposition groups and associations, will result in a loss of purchasing power for all French people, particularly those on low incomes. Here's a concrete picture of how this will affect your wallet.

Income tax will increase

The income tax scale, which is traditionally adjusted on January 1st to take into account inflation and, more specifically, increases in household income, will be maintained at its 2025 level. The tax brackets will therefore not follow price increases, which the Banque de France estimates at 1.4% for 2026 and around 1% by the government. This lack of indexation would automatically lead to an increase in the tax burden for 2025 incomes, which are set by the 2026 budget. A similar reasoning applies to the General Social Contribution (CSG).

The tax scale, which is broken down into six brackets, with the first one below €11,497, which is not taxable, will therefore not change. The start of the second bracket would remain at €11,498 (compared to €11,659 assuming a 1.4% increase), the third at €29,316, and so on. "If you increase your tax to take inflation into account but the scale doesn't change, you'll pay more taxes. And those who pay them will all pay more [around 17 million taxpayers], " explains Eric Heyer, an economist at the French Economic Observatory (OFCE), while around 50% of households are not liable for tax.

A study by the OFCE (New Window , published in October 2024 when former Prime Minister Michel Barnier was studying the freezing of the income tax scale, estimated that households close to the median standard of living (24,179 euros, according to INSEE ) would lose between 50 and 100 euros per year compared to a classic indexation situation. The study also warned that 380,000 French people who do not pay income tax would move into the second bracket, and therefore start to pay a little.

Retirement pensions will be frozen...

If the blank year presented by François Bayrou is adopted by Parliament, the pensions of some 17 million retirees would not be automatically revalued on January 1, as is traditional. "A freeze on retirement pensions would have the same consequences as not revaluing the income tax scale, that is to say, we would take purchasing power away from retirees. And the most modest households would be more penalized," summarizes Eric Heyer, while two million seniors live below the poverty line, according to a report by the association Les Petits Frères des pauvres .

A retiree earning €1,000 per month in 2025 would receive the same amount in 2026, whereas they could receive €1,014 if their pension were increased by 1.4%. Over a year, this equates to a loss of €168, even though prices are rising. Slightly more affluent retirees who are taxable ( 14.96 million households, according to the 2025 Finance Bill) could also be affected by the end of the 10% income tax allowance they receive, which will be replaced by a ceiling of €2,000 per year.

...just like the RSA, the APL or the AAH

The freeze on social benefits will particularly affect the poorest households, at a time when poverty and inequality are at their highest. Social minima such as the active solidarity income (RSA), the allowance for disabled adults (AAH), and the specific allowance for the elderly (Aspa) will not be increased in 2026. The RSA, which is €646.52 per month for a single person and €969.78 for a couple, will not increase next year, although it would have reached €655.50 with a 1.4% increase. Over a year, this represents a reduction of €108.

"In concrete terms, an RSA recipient will receive less than what they could have. If they look at what comes in each month, then yes, it doesn't change anything. But with this sum, they will be able to buy fewer things due to the rise in prices, so they lose purchasing power," explains Eric Heyer. Recipients of the Personalized Housing Assistance (APL), and particularly students, will also be affected by this blank year, as will those who receive the activity bonus.

Civil servants will not receive a pay rise

On the side of the civil servants, "There will be no general or categorical revaluation measures in the ministries," also announced the Prime Minister, who specified that "the rules for advancement in the careers of civil servants" will be on the other hand "fully respected" . Concretely, the 5.7 million public agents, or nearly one in five jobs in France according to the Ministry of Civil Service , will not be revalued in 2026. "A teacher hired in 2026 will have the same salary as his colleague hired in 2025" , summarizes Eric Heyer.